At first approximation, nearly all US$ fund activity has been transformed into Euros as we have long said. Risk but much more earnings. Until...
Of course, these US funds intake US$ and are required to pay in US$, so there needs to be a small US$ fund available to make weekly payments and to hedge anything in the near future not already covered by put purchases. But the US fund money is almost 100% in Euros.
And without a put-purchase, those Euros are held up, just as if you or we were to purchase a bank CD (not recommended!) until a certain date by contract; therefore, the US$ mini-fund is necessary for the money market, pension, hedge, big bank, and all other US$ funds.
It follows that the Euro/US$ ratio, easily controlled by supercomputers (in this case, even ancient-Intel processor-based computers) exactly duplicates any and all US$-based equities (even oil! although that is a special case.)
If the Euro goes up by whatever means, then the world is fat, dumb, and happy. If the Euro goes down, then the funds need to purchase puts; otherwise, they are forced to play the US-equity vs. Euro computer game to keep from losing your money.
US equity volume?
Please check for yourselves. Tiny. Why? Because when the Euro/US$ goes up, then fat-dumb-and-happy means that a fund doesn't need to do anything right then.
If it goes down, then most of the funds have already purchased puts (please check out the volume for yourselves) so they don't even need to trade anymore!
Simple as pie.
The only loser? YOU if you do not understand this ahead of time...
