Monday, October 4, 2010

Semiconductors and tech in general - Silicon Valley

As we recently reminded, the lead time for semi products is long, even if they are simple analog products these days - because simple analog products, these days, have to be smart analog products.

If the tech volume ramps up, the semi's (run mostly by not the brightest business folks in the world) are then forced to ramp. If the economy changes within the 6 months of their big ramp, then it's kind of an "oops!" More so than in any other industry.

So if outlooks go up and down relatively fast, and if the chip fellows knee-jerk react to it, and also the products can be obsolete in 6-mo., then what is the inventory situation? Pretty ugly? Probably you should call us before you invest.