Cisco and Nvidia Earnings from the Valley

These are easy ones - sell, sell, sell!

Both have taken advantage of a worthless US dollar to scratch out a quarter. A person could argue that anyone should have made 5% or so on the currency no matter how badly they have performed.

Of course, sometimes the Silicon Valley folks have been known to withhold last-day shipments from one quarter in order to slide them into the next quarter for cosmetic purposes... but neither of these companies would ever do that because they are too professional.

But the worst: both companies gave upward forward guidance in an economic climate where cyclicals have no idea where they are headed. How irresponsible for the widows and orphans who may be purchasing the stock.

And it worked for the companies, at least for some short time, in terms of hiking the stock price temporarily. Maybe for insiders to sell, etc.

It will not work for long. Don't get left out of the short position gains you can have once you understand the situation for these near-term underperformers.

NASDAQ Moves

It is not a good idea to listen to the hype from TV and try to rally the market for a worthless reason, e.g. the US may not default for a while is not really good news.

Greece has already defaulted, Italy will default soon, Spain probably next. The question is whether or not the banks can get out in time while selling the worthless securities to widows and orphans. That works sometimes, but the widows and orphans are smarter these days and the banks will need to take a huge bite of the proverbial xxxx sandwitch.

Just don't be part of the bank when it takes the bite!

NASDAQ is a high beta play on the cyclical world. The cyclical world is in a bad cycle.

Don't get left out!

Apples to Oranges in CA!

Watch out! The Orange Co. numbers to not agree with the more Northern CA Apple producing region numbers.

That is, the offset is a little ... a ... a little weird.

We don't care about accounting standards, we only care about results, i.e. real results after the severe US dollar devaluation that has caused more than 100% of some of the corporate "earnings" but is only ficticious.

Our clients are not susceptible to lies; instead, we help them to discern the lies from reality.

Force Majeure

Force Majeure is only tenable when the cost of force majeure is less than the assets it can achieve.

In the year 2011, under Pax Americana, we think it is unlikely that force majeure is attempted to solve any economic issue, except by the Americans. Very much unlike the years 1917 and 1941, force majeure is not likely to influence long term economic stability.

End Game for the Euro

Unfortunately, the Euro was a bad idea. The Euro is a single currency that represents the economies of many autonomous countries.

Any scale of ten countries, for example, would have a worth-rank from 1 (best) to 10 (worst) and number 1 would most likely not be happy with number 10, etc.

Also and unfortunately, the degree of socialism in the Euro block has proved to be a large economic problem so far.

In essence, the Euro is relatively worthless and will become more so with defaults.

You can call a default anything you want to call it, just as you can call printing monopoly money "quantitative easing" but the facts are the same.

Europe has fallen, again. Probably this time the US will not be shortsighted enough to pay.

This time, there is no WW3 because no one in Europe has the power to force a WW3.

There can only be world-wide European default. (Of course, that will be a problem for China and China also does not have the power to force a realistic WW3.)

Most likely, the Euro default will be in the form of monopoly money from the printing presses to the admonition of the number 1 and 2 countries in the Euro zone.

Watch out. There are not 10 years of lies left, there are only a few years max. Everyone needs to consider every aspect of investing. Gold can help you, but you need to live in China in that case.

Banks vs. the US Economy

US banks operate on a simple principle. They are allowed to take US dollars from people in the various forms of deposit and then use the money they have accepted and invest it.

The idea is that the people who qualify to be bankers by US law are supposed to be able to invest their deposits, grow them, and then have no problem paying back their depositors.

Unfornately, bankers are sometimes kind of simple, i.e. they do not raise their capital; instead, they lose it.

There are many alternatives to the US banking system. Or for that matter, alternatives to the European banking system.

It's a brave new world with decades of trouble ahead. Sometimes we need to discard the leaches that provide no value-add and decide on a better way. Better ways are obvious and lucrative.

Thur. on Wall Street

The markets should rise appreciably on Thursday and maybe even Friday.

After all, there is lots of money at risk for the Wall Street gang just prior to options expiration.

Then, the equities markets will crash a lot further than they already have.

But only after the retail fools have been fully taken advantage of.

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