Force Majeure is only tenable when the cost of force majeure is less than the assets it can achieve.
In the year 2011, under Pax Americana, we think it is unlikely that force majeure is attempted to solve any economic issue, except by the Americans. Very much unlike the years 1917 and 1941, force majeure is not likely to influence long term economic stability.
Monday, July 18, 2011
End Game for the Euro
Unfortunately, the Euro was a bad idea. The Euro is a single currency that represents the economies of many autonomous countries.
Any scale of ten countries, for example, would have a worth-rank from 1 (best) to 10 (worst) and number 1 would most likely not be happy with number 10, etc.
Also and unfortunately, the degree of socialism in the Euro block has proved to be a large economic problem so far.
In essence, the Euro is relatively worthless and will become more so with defaults.
You can call a default anything you want to call it, just as you can call printing monopoly money "quantitative easing" but the facts are the same.
Europe has fallen, again. Probably this time the US will not be shortsighted enough to pay.
This time, there is no WW3 because no one in Europe has the power to force a WW3.
There can only be world-wide European default. (Of course, that will be a problem for China and China also does not have the power to force a realistic WW3.)
Most likely, the Euro default will be in the form of monopoly money from the printing presses to the admonition of the number 1 and 2 countries in the Euro zone.
Watch out. There are not 10 years of lies left, there are only a few years max. Everyone needs to consider every aspect of investing. Gold can help you, but you need to live in China in that case.
Any scale of ten countries, for example, would have a worth-rank from 1 (best) to 10 (worst) and number 1 would most likely not be happy with number 10, etc.
Also and unfortunately, the degree of socialism in the Euro block has proved to be a large economic problem so far.
In essence, the Euro is relatively worthless and will become more so with defaults.
You can call a default anything you want to call it, just as you can call printing monopoly money "quantitative easing" but the facts are the same.
Europe has fallen, again. Probably this time the US will not be shortsighted enough to pay.
This time, there is no WW3 because no one in Europe has the power to force a WW3.
There can only be world-wide European default. (Of course, that will be a problem for China and China also does not have the power to force a realistic WW3.)
Most likely, the Euro default will be in the form of monopoly money from the printing presses to the admonition of the number 1 and 2 countries in the Euro zone.
Watch out. There are not 10 years of lies left, there are only a few years max. Everyone needs to consider every aspect of investing. Gold can help you, but you need to live in China in that case.
Banks vs. the US Economy
US banks operate on a simple principle. They are allowed to take US dollars from people in the various forms of deposit and then use the money they have accepted and invest it.
The idea is that the people who qualify to be bankers by US law are supposed to be able to invest their deposits, grow them, and then have no problem paying back their depositors.
Unfornately, bankers are sometimes kind of simple, i.e. they do not raise their capital; instead, they lose it.
There are many alternatives to the US banking system. Or for that matter, alternatives to the European banking system.
It's a brave new world with decades of trouble ahead. Sometimes we need to discard the leaches that provide no value-add and decide on a better way. Better ways are obvious and lucrative.
The idea is that the people who qualify to be bankers by US law are supposed to be able to invest their deposits, grow them, and then have no problem paying back their depositors.
Unfornately, bankers are sometimes kind of simple, i.e. they do not raise their capital; instead, they lose it.
There are many alternatives to the US banking system. Or for that matter, alternatives to the European banking system.
It's a brave new world with decades of trouble ahead. Sometimes we need to discard the leaches that provide no value-add and decide on a better way. Better ways are obvious and lucrative.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Thur. on Wall Street
The markets should rise appreciably on Thursday and maybe even Friday.
After all, there is lots of money at risk for the Wall Street gang just prior to options expiration.
Then, the equities markets will crash a lot further than they already have.
But only after the retail fools have been fully taken advantage of.
Need help? You should(!)
After all, there is lots of money at risk for the Wall Street gang just prior to options expiration.
Then, the equities markets will crash a lot further than they already have.
But only after the retail fools have been fully taken advantage of.
Need help? You should(!)
Thursday, June 9, 2011
21st Century Deflation Lesson - Simplified
Poor economic growth comes from a lack of consumers in the world. Today, a pronounced lack of US consumers insures a terrible lack of worldwide consumers.
Which financial class is consuming enough to grow the US economy?
1. Relatively poor people in the US cannot consume because a large percentage do not have jobs. Give or take 50% of them.
2. The US middle class cannot consume because a significant percentage don't have jobs, and even worse, those who do have jobs are getting paid significantly less, especially in real terms, than they were prior to the 2008 melt down.
3. The relatively few wealthy do not feel wealthy because they earn 0% interest on their cash. Then, they are forced to take large risks, some of the risks involving currency exchange, and they use equities to try to survive... but then just lose wealth to the super-computers on Wall Street. Only some bankers and traders make money and those folks are no where near enough to grow an economy.
To make it even worse, and to reinforce the downward spiral, all the monopoly money that's been printed by the Fed for hoarding by the banks has risen dollar-based commodities (e.g., OIL trades in US dollars,) pissed off the entire world (since protectionism tends to do that,) and driven up selected consumer prices to insure none of the three economic classes consume an abundance of anything.
Lose, lose, lose. All three groups.
There is no economic growth without consumers. Ben B. sites international finance textbooks during speeches in Atlanta, but he probably forgot to read his freshman economics textbook as an undergraduate.
Which financial class is consuming enough to grow the US economy?
1. Relatively poor people in the US cannot consume because a large percentage do not have jobs. Give or take 50% of them.
2. The US middle class cannot consume because a significant percentage don't have jobs, and even worse, those who do have jobs are getting paid significantly less, especially in real terms, than they were prior to the 2008 melt down.
3. The relatively few wealthy do not feel wealthy because they earn 0% interest on their cash. Then, they are forced to take large risks, some of the risks involving currency exchange, and they use equities to try to survive... but then just lose wealth to the super-computers on Wall Street. Only some bankers and traders make money and those folks are no where near enough to grow an economy.
To make it even worse, and to reinforce the downward spiral, all the monopoly money that's been printed by the Fed for hoarding by the banks has risen dollar-based commodities (e.g., OIL trades in US dollars,) pissed off the entire world (since protectionism tends to do that,) and driven up selected consumer prices to insure none of the three economic classes consume an abundance of anything.
Lose, lose, lose. All three groups.
There is no economic growth without consumers. Ben B. sites international finance textbooks during speeches in Atlanta, but he probably forgot to read his freshman economics textbook as an undergraduate.
Monday, May 30, 2011
Semi's Always the Worst for Insider Trading in Silicon Valley
Semi's have historically and statistically been the worst for unusual stock price movements in N. Cal.
One reason is that the local Mountain View bars are so concentrated with overworked employees, lots of them having ties from their point of origin, that the information seekers can have a field day for any company that does not have proper controls over inside information.
An unscrupulous individual could just pay an attractive gal to spend some time at a bar, etc.
That doesn't mean it's legal, it's just easy. You need to understand the folks who control it. The 'fingerprints' are everywhere for anyone to see.
There is an order in Silicon Valley stock price movement. It's very obvious. If you or your 'fund' don't see it, probably you should call us. We see everything in Silicon Valley. Don't use someone who wants to make $ from you, instead use someone who could make $ for you.
One reason is that the local Mountain View bars are so concentrated with overworked employees, lots of them having ties from their point of origin, that the information seekers can have a field day for any company that does not have proper controls over inside information.
An unscrupulous individual could just pay an attractive gal to spend some time at a bar, etc.
That doesn't mean it's legal, it's just easy. You need to understand the folks who control it. The 'fingerprints' are everywhere for anyone to see.
There is an order in Silicon Valley stock price movement. It's very obvious. If you or your 'fund' don't see it, probably you should call us. We see everything in Silicon Valley. Don't use someone who wants to make $ from you, instead use someone who could make $ for you.
Saturday, May 28, 2011
More Insider Trading Uncovered in Silicon Valley
We don't think the world is unenlightened enough to believe the following:
...that some junior cubical worker (e.g. finance dept.) at a pretty large tech. company is capable of having free access, easy access, and comprehensive access to inside financial information and more, and having an excellent organized chain of conspiracy heading straight to Wall Street that has caused massive trading volume irregularities, huge and frequent vacillations in stock price, too many law suits to count, timing irregularities with trading windows and insider activity including stock hype, obvious irregularities in options volumes near expiration dates, and an especially obvious price movement before and after an earnings report... we call it weird statistics...
- and all this when lots of companies have a special officer/VP/exec staff member who does nothing except manage relations with Wall Street? -
... to believe that the cubical worker acted alone and was able to secure all the illegally disseminated information in one of the following ways: 1) without any help from anyone more senior in the company, or 2) by simply taking advantage for many years of a free-for-all unregulated financial environment established at the company?
We think another guess is in order, especially important if an investor wants to win instead of lose. Be careful who helps you in Silicon Valley.
...that some junior cubical worker (e.g. finance dept.) at a pretty large tech. company is capable of having free access, easy access, and comprehensive access to inside financial information and more, and having an excellent organized chain of conspiracy heading straight to Wall Street that has caused massive trading volume irregularities, huge and frequent vacillations in stock price, too many law suits to count, timing irregularities with trading windows and insider activity including stock hype, obvious irregularities in options volumes near expiration dates, and an especially obvious price movement before and after an earnings report... we call it weird statistics...
- and all this when lots of companies have a special officer/VP/exec staff member who does nothing except manage relations with Wall Street? -
... to believe that the cubical worker acted alone and was able to secure all the illegally disseminated information in one of the following ways: 1) without any help from anyone more senior in the company, or 2) by simply taking advantage for many years of a free-for-all unregulated financial environment established at the company?
We think another guess is in order, especially important if an investor wants to win instead of lose. Be careful who helps you in Silicon Valley.
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