USECV = EURO/USD
Brilliant? No, but it works.
USECV = US$-traded-equity-compilation-vehicle (e.g. as simple as SPY, or other if the programmers are more imaginative.)
If you don't own a large room filled with the latest super computers, then retreat and take on the programmers instead. There, you have a chance.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Why is the EURO/USD so Important to US Equities? NAS, DOW, SP?
Because of the following:
1. Money bunches/groups up... kind of like traffic on a road.
2. Funds (mutual, hedge, pension, etc.) have many $1B to over $100B of assets to "invest" i.e. not to lose or else. It's not their money, but they control it.
3. So much $ that a given fund might need to buy entire corporations representing a significant part of a major US stock index.
4. Item 3 is not feasible for volume reasons. Funds could go broke.
5. The $ need to be spread across the entire planet.
6. But, the collection is in US$ and the return payment needs to be in US$.
7. Where can they invest? Japan with the government and the BOJ salivating to ruin currency exchange rates? China where a few old guys can manipulate exchange rates in a heartbeat? Uh uh.
8. So the banks have invested in the Euro zone. And if the EURO/USD crashes, so do all banks and all institutions. So do all US equities and USD-traded commodities. Instant financial death... for all US institutions, but not necessarily for you if you have prepared correctly.
1. Money bunches/groups up... kind of like traffic on a road.
2. Funds (mutual, hedge, pension, etc.) have many $1B to over $100B of assets to "invest" i.e. not to lose or else. It's not their money, but they control it.
3. So much $ that a given fund might need to buy entire corporations representing a significant part of a major US stock index.
4. Item 3 is not feasible for volume reasons. Funds could go broke.
5. The $ need to be spread across the entire planet.
6. But, the collection is in US$ and the return payment needs to be in US$.
7. Where can they invest? Japan with the government and the BOJ salivating to ruin currency exchange rates? China where a few old guys can manipulate exchange rates in a heartbeat? Uh uh.
8. So the banks have invested in the Euro zone. And if the EURO/USD crashes, so do all banks and all institutions. So do all US equities and USD-traded commodities. Instant financial death... for all US institutions, but not necessarily for you if you have prepared correctly.
Bank of Queensland
To a direct question "do you have Euro exposure?" the response was basically - well... it's a global world and we all live on the planet Earth.
Wow. Profound. And uggg. Everyone is going down with the Euro. Even Asia.
Wow. Profound. And uggg. Everyone is going down with the Euro. Even Asia.
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
The same old currency problems as in 1917 and 1941
Lots of organizations need the Euro to be strong enough to continue with business-operations-as-usual and/or to get out financially at an opportune moment.
Some of these organizations have violent influence. Unfortunately, some European politicians can attest to these facts of extortion.
An important question is whether entire nations, with their extreme pride and resource, will put up with getting bullied around or would rather leave such caution to the wind and produce force major. Sometimes, a superior force is better than a criminal influence.
At this point, we wish the Americans would leave Europe alone and allow it to resolve its own criminal influence without any American criminals getting in the way.
Some of these organizations have violent influence. Unfortunately, some European politicians can attest to these facts of extortion.
An important question is whether entire nations, with their extreme pride and resource, will put up with getting bullied around or would rather leave such caution to the wind and produce force major. Sometimes, a superior force is better than a criminal influence.
At this point, we wish the Americans would leave Europe alone and allow it to resolve its own criminal influence without any American criminals getting in the way.
Europe - the Laundry House of the Eastern World
Ever wonder what happens to Middle Eastern and some Asian funds that cannot be tracked?
They turn into Euros.
Let's not let them enter the US; instead, let's send them back where they came from before we get screwed instead of them.
The lower the Euro in value, the better the rest of the legal world.
They turn into Euros.
Let's not let them enter the US; instead, let's send them back where they came from before we get screwed instead of them.
The lower the Euro in value, the better the rest of the legal world.
Price of Gold
Gold is little more than a valued commodity.
Its value is high when people don't trust currencies.
Its value is low when currencies are believable and somewhat stable.
Something needs to accurately represent a true value of goods/services by and from the efforts of people.
If currencies become phony, then gold returns from ancient times as a measure of value.
Its value is high when people don't trust currencies.
Its value is low when currencies are believable and somewhat stable.
Something needs to accurately represent a true value of goods/services by and from the efforts of people.
If currencies become phony, then gold returns from ancient times as a measure of value.
CNBC misleads along with Alcoa in after hours - US$ moves higher after the bell
Alcoa had great revenue and TERRIBLE earnings even after all its advertised cost cutting in prior quarters. Uggg. A miss from $0.22 to $0.15 on higher revenue is probably grounds for a lawsuit. To quantify, that's a failure of about 30%! Usually you need to be 70% right just to get a passing grade. Those folks need to "get a real job."
Of course, on TV, it's all about what people are afraid of, and it's all about uncertainty in Washington... No. It is all about lousy RESULTS. No one needs to focus on fear, the RESULT is plenty good enough to dump a loser stock. Quit making excuses. We would rather have someone call in sick and not make the interview than listen to further excuses.
Guess what... commodities are down because of the euro/dollar performance - end of story. Once the Fed refused to print more $ in Sept., the US dollar is relatively high and earnings are now correspondingly low in terms of the US$. A freshman in high school can figure that out. In the US, simple arithmetic is taught in the first grade. And having the Euro on the brink of collapse doesn't help the issue(!)
Even Slovakia (spelling?) doesn't like the idea of currency manipulation. But the Euro/USD may have yet another bounce before we need to short it and all US$-traded securities.
Of course, on TV, it's all about what people are afraid of, and it's all about uncertainty in Washington... No. It is all about lousy RESULTS. No one needs to focus on fear, the RESULT is plenty good enough to dump a loser stock. Quit making excuses. We would rather have someone call in sick and not make the interview than listen to further excuses.
Guess what... commodities are down because of the euro/dollar performance - end of story. Once the Fed refused to print more $ in Sept., the US dollar is relatively high and earnings are now correspondingly low in terms of the US$. A freshman in high school can figure that out. In the US, simple arithmetic is taught in the first grade. And having the Euro on the brink of collapse doesn't help the issue(!)
Even Slovakia (spelling?) doesn't like the idea of currency manipulation. But the Euro/USD may have yet another bounce before we need to short it and all US$-traded securities.
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